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Time series analysis of coconut production in the Philippines / by Andres G. Nueva.

By:

Nueva, Andres G [author]

Contributor(s):

Ardina, Anna Marie A [adviser]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : Cavite State University- Main Campus, 2002.Description: xi, 37 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

519.55 N88 2002

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Social Sciences (CAS)

Abstract: NUEVA, ANDRES GOMEZ. "Time Series Analysis of Coconut Production in the Philippines". Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Ms. Anna Marie A. Ardina. This study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Coconut Production in the Philippines" was conducted in order to: (1) determine a model that can be used in forecasting the production in the Philippines, (2) provide a yearly forecast of the coconut production for the years 2002 to 2005, and (3) test the accuracy of the formulated model. The data used in this study were taken from Provincial Agricultural Statistics Office in Trece Martires City and Bureau of Agricultural Statistic of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City. The data included the annual production from 1978 to 2000. There were three models formulated in this study. In judging and selecting the best model for predicting the coconut production, the following criteria were carefully evaluated from each of the three models: R- squared, adjusted R- squared, standard error of regression, sum of squared residual, Durbin-Watson statistic, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Model 3 written as ARMA (0,1), was chosen as the best model. The forecasted employment rate for the years 2001 to 2005 showed a continuously decreasing trend. The production rate was expected to decrease each year. In the year 2005, the production rate was forecasted to be approximately 12,454,000 metric tons. The forecast accuracy was also tested using the MAPE method and the forecast values were reliable.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	519.55 N88 2002 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	T-2417		00002872

Special Problem (BS Applied Mathematics - - Statistics) Cavite State University.

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Social Sciences (CAS)

NUEVA, ANDRES GOMEZ. "Time Series Analysis of Coconut Production in the Philippines". Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Ms. Anna Marie A. Ardina.
This study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Coconut Production in the Philippines" was conducted in order to: (1) determine a model that can be used in forecasting the production in the Philippines, (2) provide a yearly forecast of the coconut production for the years 2002 to 2005, and (3) test the accuracy of the formulated model. The data used in this study were taken from Provincial Agricultural Statistics Office in Trece Martires City and Bureau of Agricultural Statistic of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City.
The data included the annual production from 1978 to 2000. There were three models formulated in this study. In judging and selecting the best model for predicting the coconut production, the following criteria were carefully evaluated from each of the three models: R- squared, adjusted R- squared, standard error of regression, sum of squared residual, Durbin-Watson statistic, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Model 3 written as ARMA (0,1), was chosen as the best model. The forecasted employment rate for the years 2001 to 2005 showed a continuously decreasing trend.
The production rate was expected to decrease each year. In the year 2005, the production rate was forecasted to be approximately 12,454,000 metric tons. The forecast accuracy was also tested using the MAPE method and the forecast values were reliable.

Submitted to the University Library 06/17/2002 T-2417