Perido, Liezle D. <br/><br/>
Time series analysis of crime rate in Cavite / 
by Liezle D. Perido. 
 - Indang, Cavite :  Cavite State University- Main Campus,  2016. 
 - xii, 55 pages :  illustrations ;  28 cm. 
<br/><br/> Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University 
<br/><br/>Includes bibliographical reference 
<br/><br/>College of Arts and Science (CAS)  College of Arts and Science (CAS) 
<br/><br/> PERIDO, LIEZLE D., Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Cavite. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2016. Adviser: Mr. Marc Jeffrey Sioco.<br/><br/>The study was conducted from July 2015 to March 2016 at the Physical Science Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, to describe and predict the crime rate in Cavite. It was specifically conducted to: formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the monthly crime rate in Cavite; test the adequacy of the formulated model; and forecast the crime rate in Cavite for the next 12 months.<br/>The data used in the study were gathered from Camp Vicente Lim, Calamba City,<br/>Laguna.<br/><br/>		Models formulated were ARIMA 	ARIMA 	ARIMA<br/>ARIMA (5,2,0) and ARIMA (5,2,1) using statistical software. The best model was selected considering the following model criteria: R-squared, adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The selected best model was the ARIMA (5,2,0) with the equation’s 2 yt = -1.177A2 Yl -1.003A2 yt_2 - - 0.410A2 yt-4 -0.257A2yt_5<br/><br/>It was forecasted that the crime rate will continue to increase for the next 12<br/>months.<br/> 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>Crime
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>364   / P41 2016