Time series analysis of survival rate of patients diagnosed with selected diseases in the Philippines from 1960 to 2010 /
by Jeric B. Espiritu.
- Indang, Cavite : Cavite State University- Main Campus, 2016.
- xiv, 66 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm.
Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University
Includes bibliographical references.
College of Arts and Science (CAS) College of Arts and Science (CAS)
ESPIRITU, JERIC B., Time Series Analysis of the Survival Rate of Patients Diagnosed with Selected Diseases in the Philippines from 1960 - 2010. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. Adviser: Michael E. Sta. Brigida. This manuscript focused on the survival rate of patients diagnosed with selected disease in the Philippines from 1960 to 2010. This study was conducted to determine the time where the distribution of survival rate changes. It also aimed to formulate competing forecasting model for survival rate of patients with selected diseases in the Philippines using the data splitting. In addition, it would like to forecast the survival rate of patients diagnosed with selected diseases. Lastly, it also aimed to compare the forecast for extrapolating polynomial models as obtained in the past study of Cruzada (2015) and time series models. This study used change-point test to determine if there is an underlying change in the distribution of the survival rate of patients diagnosed with selected in the Philippines from 1960 to 2010. The time period served as the cutting point for data splitting. To obtain appropriate time series models, the assumption on ARIMA models were considered. After generating models based on data splitting, it enabled to predict time series forecasts for the 10-year interval which was unknown. Coefficient of variation and mean absolute percentage error were used to compare the extrapolated polynomial forecasts and times series forecasts of the survival rate of patients diagnosed with selected diseases.