Strategic instincts : the adaptive advantages of cognitive biases in international politics /
by Dominic D. P. Johnson,
- New Jersey : Princeton University Press, 2020
- 1 online resource ((x,375 pages,) : color illustrations.
https://www.universitypressscholarship.com/
Includes bibliographical references and index
I. Introduction : our gift -- 1. Adaptive biases : making the right mistakes in international politics -- 2. The evolution of an idea : politics in the age of biology -- 3. Fortune favors the bold : the strategic advantages of overconfidence -- 4. The lion and the mouse : overconfidence and the American Revolution -- 5. Hedging bets : the strategic advantages of attribution error -- 6. Know your enemy : Britain and the appeasement of Hitler -- 7. United we stand : the strategic advantages of group bias -- 8. No mercy : the Pacific campaign of World War II -- 9. Overkill : the limits of adaptive biases -- Guardian angels : the strategic advantages of cognitive biases
A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases — quirks of the brain we all share as human beings — are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. This book challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, the book considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, the book looks at three influential cognitive biases — overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. It then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. The book acknowledges the dark side of biases — when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, it makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. The book shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.
9780691185606 (e-book)
International relations--Psychological aspects International relations--Decision making Strategy--Psychological aspects World War, 1939-1945--Campaigns--Pacific Area United States--History--Revolution, 1775-1783 Munich Four-Power Agreement (1938)