000 03173nam a2200313 a 4500
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008 070528s19uu xx 00 eng d
040 _cCvSU Main Campus Library
041 0 _aeng
082 0 4 _a633.18
_bEs8 2002
100 0 _aEstrada, Andrea D.
_eauthor
_933072
245 1 0 _aTime series analysis of Philippine rice production /
_cAndrea D. Estrada.
260 0 _aIndang, Cavite :
_c2002.
_bCavite State University- Main Campus,
300 _axii, 43 pages :
_billustrations ;
_c28 cm.
336 _2rdacontent
_atext
337 _2rdamedia
_aunmediated
338 _2rdacarrier
_avolume
500 _aSpecial Problem (BS Applied Mathematics - - Statistics) Cavite State University.
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references.
508 _aCollege of Arts and Science (CAS)
520 3 _a ESTRADA, ANDREA DIONISIO. Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto. The study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production" was conducted at the Physical Sciences Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from January to February 2002 to: l) determine a model that could be used in forecasting the rice production of the Philippines; 2) provide a forecast of the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005; and 3) test the accuracy of the formulated model. The yearly series data of the country's rice production was obtained from the Provincial Agricultural Office in Trece Martires City, Cavite and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City. Three models were formulated in this study. To select the best model that will predict the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005, the following criteria were considered: R-squared; adjusted R-squared; standard error of regression; sum of squared residual; Durbin-Watson statistic; Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Shwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Forecasted values from the year 2002 to 2005 were computed using the formulated model ARMA (1, 2) with the equation: yt + 0.60yt-5 +0.73et-l -0.54et-4 + The forecasted rice production for the year 2002 to 2005 followed an inconsistent trend. In the end of the year 2002, the rice production was approximated to be 7,981,579 metric tons; metric tons in 2003; 7,577,385 metric tons in 2004; and 7,377,784 metric tons in year 2005. The forecast accuracy was also tested using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The MAPE results showed that there was a small standard error indicating that the forecasted values were reliable.
541 _cSubmitted to the University Library
_d05/29/2002
_eSP-2348
650 0 _aRice production
_925813
690 _92526
_aBachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics
_xStatistics
700 _aCinto, Antonio V.
_98776
_eadviser
856 _p80
_yClick here to view thesis abstract and table of contents
_uhttp://library.cvsu.edu.ph/cgi-bin/koha/opac-retrieve-file.pl?id=293b99b682101551088f7f38525ec196
942 _2ddc
_cMAN
999 _c4234
_d4234