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008 | 070528s19uu xx 00 eng d | ||
040 | _cCvSU Main Campus Library | ||
041 | 0 | _aeng | |
082 | 0 | 4 |
_a633.18 _bEs8 2002 |
100 | 0 |
_aEstrada, Andrea D. _eauthor _933072 |
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245 | 1 | 0 |
_aTime series analysis of Philippine rice production / _cAndrea D. Estrada. |
260 | 0 |
_aIndang, Cavite : _c2002. _bCavite State University- Main Campus, |
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300 |
_axii, 43 pages : _billustrations ; _c28 cm. |
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336 |
_2rdacontent _atext |
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_2rdamedia _aunmediated |
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338 |
_2rdacarrier _avolume |
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500 | _aSpecial Problem (BS Applied Mathematics - - Statistics) Cavite State University. | ||
504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references. | ||
508 | _aCollege of Arts and Science (CAS) | ||
520 | 3 | _a ESTRADA, ANDREA DIONISIO. Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto. The study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production" was conducted at the Physical Sciences Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from January to February 2002 to: l) determine a model that could be used in forecasting the rice production of the Philippines; 2) provide a forecast of the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005; and 3) test the accuracy of the formulated model. The yearly series data of the country's rice production was obtained from the Provincial Agricultural Office in Trece Martires City, Cavite and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City. Three models were formulated in this study. To select the best model that will predict the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005, the following criteria were considered: R-squared; adjusted R-squared; standard error of regression; sum of squared residual; Durbin-Watson statistic; Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Shwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Forecasted values from the year 2002 to 2005 were computed using the formulated model ARMA (1, 2) with the equation: yt + 0.60yt-5 +0.73et-l -0.54et-4 + The forecasted rice production for the year 2002 to 2005 followed an inconsistent trend. In the end of the year 2002, the rice production was approximated to be 7,981,579 metric tons; metric tons in 2003; 7,577,385 metric tons in 2004; and 7,377,784 metric tons in year 2005. The forecast accuracy was also tested using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The MAPE results showed that there was a small standard error indicating that the forecasted values were reliable. | |
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_cSubmitted to the University Library _d05/29/2002 _eSP-2348 |
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_aRice production _925813 |
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_92526 _aBachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics _xStatistics |
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_aCinto, Antonio V. _98776 _eadviser |
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_p80 _yClick here to view thesis abstract and table of contents _uhttp://library.cvsu.edu.ph/cgi-bin/koha/opac-retrieve-file.pl?id=293b99b682101551088f7f38525ec196 |
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_2ddc _cMAN |
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