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Time series analysis of the total rice stock in the Philippines since 1980-2015 / by Myrtle David Arevalo.

By:

Arevalo, Myrtle David [author]

Contributor(s):

Mojica, Analyn A [adviser]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2016. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: vii, 559 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

658.5 Ar3 2016

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

Abstract: AREVALO, MYRTLE DAVID. Time Series Analysis of the Rice Stock in the Philippines Since 1980 — 2015. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica. The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the rice stock; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the Philippines' rice stock for the next five years. The data used in the study were secondary data of the rice stock from 1980 — 2015 in the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the rice stock were selected considering several criteria: R—squared, Adjusted R—squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (6, 2, 0), and the forecasted values for the rice stock were computed using the formulated model equations. `The estimated model for the rice stock was: A Yt- -0.591 A2 Yt_l - 0.522 A2 Yt-2 - 0.786 A2 Yt_3 - 0.695 A2 Yt-4 - 0.170 A2 Yt_5 - 0.445 Y and the forecasted values were 30, 084.58; 30, 528.93, 30; 972.21; 31, 416.02, and 31,859.83.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	658.5 Ar3 2016 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	T-6206		00010021

Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

AREVALO, MYRTLE DAVID. Time Series Analysis of the Rice Stock in the
Philippines Since 1980 — 2015. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica.

The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the rice stock; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the Philippines' rice stock for the next five years.
The data used in the study were secondary data of the rice stock from 1980 — 2015 in the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the rice stock were selected considering several criteria: R—squared, Adjusted R—squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (6, 2, 0), and the forecasted values for the rice stock were computed using the formulated model equations.

`The estimated model for the rice stock was:
A Yt- -0.591 A2 Yt_l - 0.522 A2 Yt-2 - 0.786 A2 Yt_3 - 0.695 A2 Yt-4
- 0.170 A2 Yt_5 - 0.445 Y
and the forecasted values were 30, 084.58; 30, 528.93, 30; 972.21; 31, 416.02, and 31,859.83.

Submitted copy to the University Library. 02/14/2017 T-6206