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Time series analysis of price of diesel fuel in the Philippines / by Noah S. Feranil and Juan Paolo B. Gatpandan.

By:

Feranil, Noah S [author]

Contributor(s):

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2017. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xiii, 68 pasges : 28 cm. illustrations ; Content type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

333.8 F37 2017

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

Abstract: FERANIL, NOAH S. and GATPANDAN, JUAN PAOLO B.,Time Series Analysis of Price of Diesel Fuel in the Philippines.Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics with specialization in Statistics. Cavite State University, Indang CaviteMay 2017. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica. This study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Price of Diesel Fuel in the Philippines "was conducted at Cavite State University - Main Campus. Generally, the objective of this study is to formulate a time series model for the price of diesel fuel in the Philippines. Particularly this study was conducted to(l)determine the time where the distribution of the price of diesel fuel changes; (2) formulate competing forecasting models for the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines; (3)compare the competing models for the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines base on model fit statistics and forecast accuracy; and(4) forecast the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines for the next twelve weeks. The study had a total data of 169 weekly basis. In determining the time where the distribution of prices of diesel fuel change, change-point test for continuous variable was used. The time period were the distribution of the price of diesel fuel changed was on 122nd time period. In identifying the best model, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC), Root Mean Square Error(RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) and Theil's Inequality Coemcient(TIC) was used. Through the model fit statistics and forecasting performance of each model, the best model that will forecast the future price of diesel fuel for the next twelve weeks was determined. The final forecasting model was: = 0.123xt-1 + 0.205xt_2 + 0.672xt_3 — 0.093wt-1 + 0.130wt-2 + 0.963wt-3 The forecasted values of the price of diesel fuel per liter shows anincreasing trend for the next twelve weeks. The highest forecasted value is on July 4, 2017, with a predicted amount of 32.55 pesos per liter. On the other hand, the lowest forecasted value is on April 18, 2017 with an amount of 31.63pesos per liter.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	333.8 F37 2017 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	T-6793		00011276

Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

FERANIL, NOAH S. and GATPANDAN, JUAN PAOLO B.,Time Series Analysis of
Price of Diesel Fuel in the Philippines.Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics with specialization in Statistics. Cavite State University, Indang CaviteMay 2017. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica.
This study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Price of Diesel Fuel in the Philippines "was conducted at Cavite State University - Main Campus. Generally, the objective of this study is to formulate a time series model for the price of diesel fuel in the Philippines. Particularly this study was conducted to(l)determine the time where the distribution of the price of diesel fuel changes; (2) formulate competing forecasting models for the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines; (3)compare the competing models for the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines base on model fit statistics and forecast accuracy; and(4) forecast the average weekly price of diesel fuel per liter in the Philippines for the next twelve weeks.
The study had a total data of 169 weekly basis. In determining the time where the distribution of prices of diesel fuel change, change-point test for continuous variable was used. The time period were the distribution of the price of diesel fuel changed was on 122nd time period.
In identifying the best model, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC), Root Mean Square Error(RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) and Theil's Inequality Coemcient(TIC) was used. Through the model fit statistics and forecasting performance of each model, the best model that will forecast the future price of diesel fuel for the next twelve weeks was determined.
The final forecasting model was:
= 0.123xt-1 + 0.205xt_2 + 0.672xt_3 — 0.093wt-1 + 0.130wt-2 + 0.963wt-3
The forecasted values of the price of diesel fuel per liter shows anincreasing trend for the next twelve weeks. The highest forecasted value is on July 4, 2017, with a predicted amount of 32.55 pesos per liter. On the other hand, the lowest forecasted value is on April 18, 2017 with an amount of 31.63pesos per liter.

Submitted copy to the University Library. 08-01-2017 T-6793