Time series analysis of forested land areas in the Philippines from 1976-2013 / by Mark Emmanuel S. Llamado.Material type: TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2016. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xii, 51 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:
- 577.3 L77 2016
- College of Arts and Science (CAS)
|Item type||Current library||Collection||Call number||Materials specified||URL||Status||Notes||Date due||Barcode|
|Theses / Manuscripts||Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section||Non-fiction||577.3 L77 2016 (Browse shelf(Opens below))||Link to resource||Room use only||T-6307||00011427|
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Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University
Includes bibliographical references.
College of Arts and Science (CAS)
LLAMADO, EMMANUEL SALAZAR Time Series Analysis of Forested
Land Area in the Philippines from 1976-2013- Undergraduate Thesis- Bachelor of
Science in Applied Mathematics with specialization in Statistics- Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite- April 2016- Adviser: Mr.- Antonio V. Cinto
The study conducted to formulate appropriate forecasting model for forested land areas- Specifically, it aimed to: (1.) convey models for the Philippine Forested Areas:
(2) compare formulated models; (3) test the accuracy of the formulated model; and (4) forecast the forested land area of the Philippine’s for the next five years-
The data used in the study was acquired from Philippine Statistics Authority and
Department of Environment and Natural Resources-
Graphical and descriptive statistics was also used to describe the data- Augmented
Dickey-Fuller test to test the stationarity of the time series data, autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function was used- Since the time series data did not show stationarity, ARIMA model was used as alternative models. The assumptions; zero-mean, constant variance, independence and normality were also tested in this study.
Models were formulated using time series analysis- The best model for the average forested land area of the Philippines was selected considering several criteria- Forecasted values for the forested land area in the Philippines for the year 2014-20 / 8 were computed using the formulated model equations- The estimated model for the forested land area
mean that is why an error term was added the model for the error ten Years
A3 Et = —1.845A3Et — 1.350 A3Et_1 — 0.419A3Et
The forecasted forested land area in hectares for 2014-2018 were 14,211,418.26.
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for Philippine forested land area v.-as reliable with the value 1.273-
Submitted copy to the University Library. 05/29/2017 T-6307