Time series analysis of the volume of chicken egg production in the Philippines / by John Nicko E. Escauriasa and Jeah Kimberly R. Telmo.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2017. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xvi, 61 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 510  Es1 2017
Online resources: Production credits:
  • College of Arts and Science (CAS)
Abstract: ESCAURIASA, JOHN NICKO E. and TELMO, JEAH KIMBERLY R. Time Series Analysis of Chicken Egg Production in the Philippines. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University Indang, Cavite. May 2017. Adviser: Dr. Renelyn R. Cordial. The data that was used in the study was taken from the website of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture. This study was conducted from August 2016 to May 2017. Specifically, it aimed: (1) formulate competing ARIMA models that could used to forecast chicken egg production in the Philippines; (2) test the adequacy of the formulated models and choose the best fit model; (3) generate forecasts of chicken egg production quarterly from 2017 to 2018; (4) determine the forecast ability of the fitted model This study used time series analysis. There were three competing models; ARI (4, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 1, 1) and ARIMA (3, 1, 3). Based on the findings of the study, it was stated that ARIMA (3, 1, 3) is the best fit model in terms of model fit statistics. The best model was tested if it could satisfy the Box-Jenkins model assumptions. It satisfied the criteria and the final formula was: §, = 0.0093 + 0.12265y;_, + 0.1349y,_2 — 0.0969y,_3 — 0.8393 y,_4, — 0.71748,_, + 0.2314& _2 + 0.0113¢,_, + 0.4746&_4 Based on the outcome of the study, the following conclusions were made: (1) the final model for forecasting the volume of egg production in the Philippines is ARIMA (3,1, 3) with the above stated formula; (2) the computed Box — Ljung value is 16.214 which is less than the chi square value of 28.869, this is an indication that the computed Box — Ljung was not significant therefore making the model adequate; (3) the forecasted values for the volume of chicken egg production in the Philippines shows an increase on the second quarter of 2017. It will decline in the third quarter of 2017 and will rise again in the fourth quarter of 2017 continuously increasing until the second quarter of 2018. It will decrease in the third quarter and third quarter of 2018 and finally increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The forecasted value has 66.73% level of confidence with the actual data obtained from the DoA; and (4) the computed Theil’s U statistic is 0.017349 which shows that the forecasted values are reliable. This study indicates that the model can be used for forecasting the future values of the volume of egg production in the Philippines. In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting, this study recommends the following: (1) future researchers may add factors affecting the production cases in a specific location and identify other factors which could possibly affect the livestock production; (2) apply change point test for longer series of data to verify the validity of data splitting in time series using the aforementioned test; and (3) apply data splitting test and compare the forecast produced by this study.
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Item type Current library Collection Call number Materials specified URL Status Notes Date due Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts Theses / Manuscripts Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section Non-fiction 510 Es1 2017 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Link to resource Room use only T-6790 00011449

Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

ESCAURIASA, JOHN NICKO E. and TELMO, JEAH KIMBERLY R. Time Series Analysis of Chicken Egg Production in the Philippines. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University Indang, Cavite. May 2017. Adviser: Dr. Renelyn R. Cordial.

The data that was used in the study was taken from the website of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture. This study was conducted from August 2016 to May 2017. Specifically, it aimed: (1) formulate competing ARIMA models that could used to forecast chicken egg production in the Philippines; (2) test the adequacy of the formulated models and choose the best fit model; (3) generate forecasts of chicken egg production quarterly from 2017 to 2018; (4) determine the forecast ability of the fitted model

This study used time series analysis. There were three competing models; ARI (4, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 1, 1) and ARIMA (3, 1, 3). Based on the findings of the study, it was stated that ARIMA (3, 1, 3) is the best fit model in terms of model fit statistics.

The best model was tested if it could satisfy the Box-Jenkins model assumptions. It satisfied the criteria and the final formula was:

§, = 0.0093 + 0.12265y;_, + 0.1349y,_2 — 0.0969y,_3 — 0.8393 y,_4, — 0.71748,_,
+ 0.2314& _2 + 0.0113¢,_, + 0.4746&_4

Based on the outcome of the study, the following conclusions were made: (1) the final model for forecasting the volume of egg production in the Philippines is ARIMA (3,1, 3) with the above stated formula; (2) the computed Box — Ljung value is 16.214 which is less than the chi square value of 28.869, this is an indication that the computed Box — Ljung was not significant therefore making the model adequate; (3) the forecasted values for the volume of chicken egg production in the Philippines shows an increase on the second quarter of 2017. It will decline in the third quarter of 2017 and will rise again in the fourth quarter of 2017 continuously increasing until the second quarter of 2018. It will decrease in the third quarter and third quarter of 2018 and finally increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The forecasted value has 66.73% level of confidence with the actual data obtained from the DoA; and (4) the computed Theil’s U statistic is 0.017349 which shows that the forecasted values are reliable.

This study indicates that the model can be used for forecasting the future values of
the volume of egg production in the Philippines. In order to improve the accuracy of
forecasting, this study recommends the following: (1) future researchers may add factors affecting the production cases in a specific location and identify other factors which could possibly affect the livestock production; (2) apply change point test for longer series of data to verify the validity of data splitting in time series using the aforementioned test; and (3) apply data splitting test and compare the forecast produced by this study.

Submitted copy to the University Library. 08/01/2017 T-6790

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