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Times series analysis of electricity demand in Luzon / Ionna Grace G. Mendoza.

By:

Mendoza, Ionna Grace G [author]

Contributor(s):

Mojica, Analyn A [adviser]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : Cavite State University- Main Campus, 2019.Description: xv , 48 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

621.3 M52 2018

Online resources:

View Abstract

Production credits:

College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), Department of Physical Sciences

Abstract: MENDOZA, IONNA GRACE G. Time Series Analysis of Electricity Demand in Luzon, Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, December 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica. The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the electricity demand; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the electricity demand in Luzon for the following year. The data used in the study were secondary data of the electricity demand from 2001 — 2014 in the Department of Energy (DOE). Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the electricity demand were selected considering several criteria: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (2, 1, 0), and the forecasted values for the electricity demand were computed using the formulated model equations. The estimated model for the electricity demand was: Yt = 2.307yt-i — 2.399yt-2 + 1.450yt-3 — 0.736yt-4 + 0.166yt-5 + 0.756yt-6 — 1.444yt-7 + 0.999yt-8 — 0.139yt-9 + 1.891Et-1 — 3.666Et-2 + 2.701Et-3 + 0.354Et-4 — 2.856Et-5 + 2.356Et-6 — 0.78Et-7 + 8.786 and the forecasted values of peak electricity demand for 2015 to 2017 were: 8941.386, 9042.715, 9141.911 (month of May)

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Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	621.3 M52 2018 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	T-7850		00076945

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Thesis (Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University.

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), Department of Physical Sciences

MENDOZA, IONNA GRACE G. Time Series Analysis of Electricity Demand in Luzon, Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, December 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica.
The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the electricity demand; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the electricity demand in Luzon for the following year.
The data used in the study were secondary data of the electricity demand from 2001 — 2014 in the Department of Energy (DOE).
Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the electricity demand were selected considering several criteria: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (2, 1, 0), and the forecasted values for the electricity demand were computed using the formulated model equations.
The estimated model for the electricity demand was:
Yt = 2.307yt-i — 2.399yt-2 + 1.450yt-3 — 0.736yt-4 + 0.166yt-5 + 0.756yt-6 — 1.444yt-7 + 0.999yt-8 — 0.139yt-9 + 1.891Et-1 — 3.666Et-2 + 2.701Et-3 + 0.354Et-4 — 2.856Et-5 + 2.356Et-6 — 0.78Et-7 + 8.786
and the forecasted values of peak electricity demand for 2015 to 2017 were: 8941.386, 9042.715, 9141.911 (month of May)

Submitted to the University Library March 13, 2019 T-7850