Time implications and the effects of economic changes on the behavior of chicken prices / by Eloida R. Halili.

By: Material type: TextTextLanguage: English Publication details: Los Baños, Laguna, 1982. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: 93 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 636.5  H13 1982
Abstract: HALILI, ELOIDA R, University of the Philippines at Los Banos, April 1982. Time Implication and the Effects of Economic Changes on the Behavior of Chicken Prices, Major Professor: Dr. Narciso R. Deocampo. The study examines the behavior of chicken prices using data.some standard procedures for analysis of price Observations on the prices of chicken include retail and farm prices of native "inahin"; retail and wholesale for broilers. Two sets of observation were employed: records provide for 20 years of monthly data on native chicken prices and 10 years of monthly broiler prices. Conventional methods used in time series analysis were employed on the data, especially on trends and seasonality’s. This means, firstly, the use of least squares and estimating a linear time trend for both current and real prices. Issues on monthly price fluctuations were treated based on seasonal indices computed by the at method ratio to moving average. At the same time, attempts were made to describe periodicities in prices by employing trigonometric ions. Computational procedures allow for verification of the degree of price variations among market levels, as well as determine associations in price movements between levels. The third part presents a price function postulating that consumer prices are flexible and are responsive to Such factors which are likely to affect consumer decisions: the amount of chicken meat being made available to consumers, consumers' personal disposable in-n coxes and the general trend in consumer prices e.. Findings indicate a general rising trend in chicken prices, although native farm prices when expressed in real terms (1972=100) show a downward behavior. Considering the changes taking place in chicken production, the study anticipates the effect that price trends could bear on the whole chicken industry. Analysis on month to month price variations reveals things. Firstly, the patterns of behavior for all ices at all market levels were the same during the year. However, indications were that seasonalities are more pronounced for broiler's wholesale, and for native's retail prices. Seasonalities are being traced to strong consumer demand during the holidays coupled with the reference of consumers to native chicken meat.- Some defined behavior seem imminent from the series. However, no definite cyclical pattern can be established, for even if the procedures employed cannot rule out the existence of some cyclical variation, the duration of the cycle seems to be lengthening through the years. Analysis on the degree of price variations showed wider amplitude for the consumer prices of broilers. For native chicken, farm level prices were observed for greater price variability. Closeness of price movements between market levels were also determined. Conversions based on cyclical Timing relationships suggest that changes in farm prices of native chicken lag changes being initiated at the retail level. The postulated price function was helpful in deter-Lining several issues mainly concerning consumer decisions and consumer prices. Initially, it gave indications regarding the inability of chicken meat supplies to cope with increasing demands causing the upward pressure on consumer prices. Secondly, the existence of consumers • majority of whom belong to the lower income bracket serve as the restraining factor for enterprising sellers to further raise their prices. Generally, however, chicken prices conform with the behavior of other prices, such that they follow the pattern characterized by the general rice trend.
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Thesis (M.S.--Agricultural Economics) University of the Philippines

Includes bibliographical references.

HALILI, ELOIDA R, University of the Philippines at Los Banos, April 1982. Time Implication and the Effects of Economic Changes on the Behavior of Chicken Prices, Major Professor:
Dr. Narciso R. Deocampo.
The study examines the behavior of chicken prices using data.some standard procedures for analysis of price Observations on the prices of chicken include retail and farm prices of native "inahin"; retail and wholesale for broilers. Two sets of observation were employed: records provide for 20 years of monthly data on native chicken prices and 10 years of monthly broiler prices.
Conventional methods used in time series analysis were employed on the data, especially on trends and seasonality’s. This means, firstly, the use of least squares and estimating a linear time trend for both current and real prices. Issues on monthly price fluctuations were treated based on seasonal indices computed by the at method ratio to moving average.
At the same time, attempts were made to describe periodicities in prices by employing trigonometric ions. Computational procedures allow for verification of the degree of price variations among market levels, as well as determine associations in price movements between levels.
The third part presents a price function postulating that consumer prices are flexible and are responsive to Such factors which are likely to affect consumer decisions: the amount of chicken meat being made available to consumers, consumers' personal disposable in-n coxes and the general trend in consumer prices e..
Findings indicate a general rising trend in chicken prices, although native farm prices when expressed in real terms (1972=100) show a downward behavior. Considering the changes taking place in chicken production, the study anticipates the effect that price trends could bear on the whole chicken industry.
Analysis on month to month price variations reveals things. Firstly, the patterns of behavior for all ices at all market levels were the same during the year. However, indications were that seasonalities are more pronounced for broiler's wholesale, and for native's retail prices.
Seasonalities are being traced to strong consumer demand during the holidays coupled with the reference of consumers to native chicken meat.-
Some defined behavior seem imminent from the series. However, no definite cyclical pattern can be established, for even if the procedures employed cannot rule out the existence of some cyclical variation, the duration of the cycle seems to be lengthening through the years.
Analysis on the degree of price variations showed wider amplitude for the consumer prices of broilers. For native chicken, farm level prices were observed for greater price variability.
Closeness of price movements between market levels were also determined. Conversions based on cyclical Timing relationships suggest that changes in farm prices of native chicken lag changes being initiated at the retail level.
The postulated price function was helpful in deter-Lining several issues mainly concerning consumer decisions and consumer prices. Initially, it gave indications regarding the inability of chicken meat supplies to cope with increasing demands causing the upward pressure on consumer prices. Secondly, the existence of consumers • majority of whom belong to the lower income bracket serve as the restraining factor for enterprising sellers to further raise their prices. Generally, however, chicken prices conform with the behavior of other prices, such that they follow the pattern characterized by the general rice trend.

Submitted to the University Library 07/18/2007 T-1571

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