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Time series analysis of crime rate in Cavite / by Liezle D. Perido.

By:

Perido, Liezle D [author]

Contributor(s):

Sioco, Marc Jeffrey P [adviser]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2016. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xii, 55 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

364 P41 2016

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

Abstract: PERIDO, LIEZLE D., Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Cavite. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2016. Adviser: Mr. Marc Jeffrey Sioco. The study was conducted from July 2015 to March 2016 at the Physical Science Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, to describe and predict the crime rate in Cavite. It was specifically conducted to: formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the monthly crime rate in Cavite; test the adequacy of the formulated model; and forecast the crime rate in Cavite for the next 12 months. The data used in the study were gathered from Camp Vicente Lim, Calamba City, Laguna. Models formulated were ARIMA ARIMA ARIMA ARIMA (5,2,0) and ARIMA (5,2,1) using statistical software. The best model was selected considering the following model criteria: R-squared, adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The selected best model was the ARIMA (5,2,0) with the equation’s 2 yt = -1.177A2 Yl -1.003A2 yt_2 - - 0.410A2 yt-4 -0.257A2yt_5 It was forecasted that the crime rate will continue to increase for the next 12 months.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	364 P41 2016 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	T-6197		00010010

Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University

Includes bibliographical reference

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

PERIDO, LIEZLE D., Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Cavite. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2016. Adviser: Mr. Marc Jeffrey Sioco.

The study was conducted from July 2015 to March 2016 at the Physical Science Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, to describe and predict the crime rate in Cavite. It was specifically conducted to: formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the monthly crime rate in Cavite; test the adequacy of the formulated model; and forecast the crime rate in Cavite for the next 12 months.
The data used in the study were gathered from Camp Vicente Lim, Calamba City,
Laguna.

Models formulated were ARIMA ARIMA ARIMA
ARIMA (5,2,0) and ARIMA (5,2,1) using statistical software. The best model was selected considering the following model criteria: R-squared, adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The selected best model was the ARIMA (5,2,0) with the equation’s 2 yt = -1.177A2 Yl -1.003A2 yt_2 - - 0.410A2 yt-4 -0.257A2yt_5

It was forecasted that the crime rate will continue to increase for the next 12
months.

Submitted copy to the University Library. 02/14/2017 T-6197