Time series analysis of dengue cases in Region IV-A (CALABARZON) according to gender from January 2011 - September 2016 / by Ronald Cedrick E. Bunales.
Material type:
TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2016. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xi, 61 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type: - text
- unmediated
- volume
- 614.4 B88 2016
- College of Arts and Science (CAS)
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Theses / Manuscripts
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Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section | Non-fiction | 614.4 B88 2016 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Link to resource | Room use only | T-6693 | 00011274 |
Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University
Includes bibliographical references.
College of Arts and Science (CAS)
RONALD CEDRICK E. BUÑALES. Time Series Analysis of Dengue Cases in Region IV-A According to Gender from January 2011 September 2016. Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics with specialization in Statistics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. December 2016. Adviser: Ms. Jennifer R. Mojica.
This study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Dengue Cases in Region IV-A According to Gender from January 2011 September 2016." was conducted at Cavite State University - Main Campus from January 2016 December 2016. Generally, it aimed to forecast the dengue cases in Region IV-A separately for males and females for the next five months. Specifically, it aimed to (1) formulate a time series model for the dengue cases in Region IV-A according to gender; (2) to create competing forecasting models for dengue cases separately for males and females; (3) to determine the best appropriate forecasting model by gender; and (4) forecast the dengue cases by gender from October 2016 - February 2017. secretary. - - Time series analysis was used in this study. The data used in the study were the secondary data obtained with the request letter addressed to the office of the DOH This study formulated three competing models for each gender which were evaluated to determine the best model that was used to forecast the dengue cases by gender for the next five months. After creating models, it underwent three tests for the assumption of a time series model. After evaluating if the model created is fit for forecasting, its accuracy was determined. The final model obtained for forecasting the male and female dengue cases were: ŷt -0.618yt-1 + 1.381yt-2 - 0.382yt-3 +0 -0.381yt-4; and t=2.236yt-1-0.579yt-2 + 1.236yt-3-0.421yt-4, respectively. These models were generated using the SPSS software and was used as the formula in forecasting the dengue cases in Region IV-A according to gender. The models for males and females were made separately to predict the dengue cases in Region IV-A by gender for the next five months. The forecasted values of the male dengue cases showed a decreasing trend for the next five months. The future values of the male dengue cases have 76.7% level of confidence with the actual data given by the DOH. The forecasted values for the female dengue cases showed an increasing trend for the next three months followed by a decrease in the month of January and will increase again for the month of February. The forecasted values have 78.2% level of confidence with the actual data obtained from the DOH. Finally, based upon the result of the study, it was recommended that (1) future researchers can use the results stated in this study as benchmark data for similar studies involving dengue cases. They can also add factors affecting the dengue cases in a specific location; and (2) regional health offices can use the results as an expected outcome, thus making them more alert in disseminating helpful information and preventive measures to reduce the risk of dengue in the region.
Submitted copy to the University Library. 05-29-2017 T-6693