Times series analysis of electricity demand in Luzon / Ionna Grace G. Mendoza.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : Cavite State University- Main Campus, 2019.Description: xv , 48 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 621.3  M52 2018
Online resources: Production credits:
  • College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), Department of Physical Sciences
Abstract: MENDOZA, IONNA GRACE G. Time Series Analysis of Electricity Demand in Luzon, Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, December 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica. The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the electricity demand; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the electricity demand in Luzon for the following year. The data used in the study were secondary data of the electricity demand from 2001 — 2014 in the Department of Energy (DOE). Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the electricity demand were selected considering several criteria: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (2, 1, 0), and the forecasted values for the electricity demand were computed using the formulated model equations. The estimated model for the electricity demand was: Yt = 2.307yt-i — 2.399yt-2 + 1.450yt-3 — 0.736yt-4 + 0.166yt-5 + 0.756yt-6 — 1.444yt-7 + 0.999yt-8 — 0.139yt-9 + 1.891Et-1 — 3.666Et-2 + 2.701Et-3 + 0.354Et-4 — 2.856Et-5 + 2.356Et-6 — 0.78Et-7 + 8.786 and the forecasted values of peak electricity demand for 2015 to 2017 were: 8941.386, 9042.715, 9141.911 (month of May)
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Theses / Manuscripts Theses / Manuscripts Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section Non-fiction 621.3 M52 2018 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Link to resource Room use only T-7850 00076945

Thesis (Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics) Cavite State University.

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), Department of Physical Sciences

MENDOZA, IONNA GRACE G. Time Series Analysis of Electricity Demand in Luzon, Undergraduate Thesis. Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics (Major in Statistics). Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, December 2016. Adviser: Prof. Analyn A. Mojica.
The study was conducted to formulate an appropriate forecasting model for the electricity demand; test the accuracy of the formulated model; and provide the forecast of the electricity demand in Luzon for the following year.
The data used in the study were secondary data of the electricity demand from 2001 — 2014 in the Department of Energy (DOE).
Models were selected using the time series analysis. The best models for the electricity demand were selected considering several criteria: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The selected best model was the ARIMA (2, 1, 0), and the forecasted values for the electricity demand were computed using the formulated model equations.
The estimated model for the electricity demand was:
Yt = 2.307yt-i — 2.399yt-2 + 1.450yt-3 — 0.736yt-4 + 0.166yt-5 + 0.756yt-6 — 1.444yt-7 + 0.999yt-8 — 0.139yt-9 + 1.891Et-1 — 3.666Et-2 + 2.701Et-3 + 0.354Et-4 — 2.856Et-5 + 2.356Et-6 — 0.78Et-7 + 8.786
and the forecasted values of peak electricity demand for 2015 to 2017 were: 8941.386, 9042.715, 9141.911 (month of May)

Submitted to the University Library March 13, 2019 T-7850

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