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Statistical model for forecasting price of coffee / Lynette D. Perido and Joanna O. Manguerra.

By:

Perido, Lynette D [author]

Contributor(s):

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2005. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xiv, 48 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

519.5 P41S 2005

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

Abstract: MANGUERRA, JOANNA ORCALES•, PERIDO, LYNETTE DINGLASAN. "Statistical Model for Forecasting Price of Coffee". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics Major in Statistics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2005. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto. The study was conducted at the Physical Science Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from December to March 2005 to I) formulate a model for price of Robusta and Brazilian Coffee and 2) provide a forecast of price for the year 2005. The data used in this study were obtained from the Department of Economic Research in Central Bank of the Philippines for the quarterly price of Brazilian coffee and Department of Trade and Industry- International Coffee Organization Certifying Agency for the quarterly price of Robusta Coffee. Models were formulated using time series analysis. The best model for the two varieties of coffee were selected considering several criteria. Forecasted values for price of Brazilian and Robusta for the year 2005 were computed using the formulated model equations. The model equation for Robusta coffee was Yt = -0.76Yt-l + 0.98et-l + et and the forecasted value per kilogram were P 36.00; P 34.83; P34.03; P33.36; from the first to fourth quarter of 2005. Yt = -24.87 + 0.36Yt-3 — 0.94et-5 + et was the model equation for Brazilian coffee and the forecasted value per metric ton for 2005 were $1147.85, for first quarter; $1117.56, second quarter; $1106.65, third quarter; and $ 1102.73 for fourth quarter, respectively. The computed MAPE for Robusta and Brazilian were reliable with the value of 9.02 and 9.74, respectively.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	519.5 P41S 2005 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	SP-2989		00004266

Special Problem (BS Applied Mathematics - - Statistics) Cavite State University.

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

MANGUERRA, JOANNA ORCALES•, PERIDO, LYNETTE DINGLASAN. "Statistical Model for Forecasting Price of Coffee". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics Major in Statistics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite. April 2005. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto.
The study was conducted at the Physical Science Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from December to March 2005 to I) formulate a model for price of Robusta and Brazilian Coffee and 2) provide a forecast of price for the year 2005.
The data used in this study were obtained from the Department of Economic Research in Central Bank of the Philippines for the quarterly price of Brazilian coffee and Department of Trade and Industry- International Coffee Organization Certifying Agency for the quarterly price of Robusta Coffee.
Models were formulated using time series analysis. The best model for the two varieties of coffee were selected considering several criteria. Forecasted values for price of Brazilian and Robusta for the year 2005 were computed using the formulated model equations. The model equation for Robusta coffee was Yt = -0.76Yt-l + 0.98et-l + et and the forecasted value per kilogram were P 36.00; P 34.83; P34.03; P33.36; from the first to fourth quarter of 2005. Yt = -24.87 + 0.36Yt-3 — 0.94et-5 + et was the model equation for Brazilian coffee and the forecasted value per metric ton for 2005 were $1147.85, for first quarter; $1117.56, second quarter; $1106.65, third quarter; and $ 1102.73 for fourth quarter, respectively.
The computed MAPE for Robusta and Brazilian were reliable with the value of
9.02 and 9.74, respectively.

Submitted to the University Library 04/13/2005 SP-2989