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Time series analysis of Philippine rice production / Andrea D. Estrada.

By:

Estrada, Andrea D [author]

Contributor(s):

Cinto, Antonio V [adviser]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: English Publication details: Indang, Cavite : 2002. Cavite State University- Main Campus,Description: xii, 43 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

Subject(s):

DDC classification:

633.18 Es8 2002

Online resources:

Click here to view thesis abstract and table of contents

Production credits:

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

Abstract: ESTRADA, ANDREA DIONISIO. Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto. The study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production" was conducted at the Physical Sciences Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from January to February 2002 to: l) determine a model that could be used in forecasting the rice production of the Philippines; 2) provide a forecast of the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005; and 3) test the accuracy of the formulated model. The yearly series data of the country's rice production was obtained from the Provincial Agricultural Office in Trece Martires City, Cavite and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City. Three models were formulated in this study. To select the best model that will predict the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005, the following criteria were considered: R-squared; adjusted R-squared; standard error of regression; sum of squared residual; Durbin-Watson statistic; Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Shwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Forecasted values from the year 2002 to 2005 were computed using the formulated model ARMA (1, 2) with the equation: yt + 0.60yt-5 +0.73et-l -0.54et-4 + The forecasted rice production for the year 2002 to 2005 followed an inconsistent trend. In the end of the year 2002, the rice production was approximated to be 7,981,579 metric tons; metric tons in 2003; 7,577,385 metric tons in 2004; and 7,377,784 metric tons in year 2005. The forecast accuracy was also tested using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The MAPE results showed that there was a small standard error indicating that the forecasted values were reliable.

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Holdings ( 1 )
Title notes ( 5 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Materials specified	URL	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Theses / Manuscripts	Ladislao N. Diwa Memorial Library Theses Section	Non-fiction	633.18 Es8 2002 (Browse shelf(Opens below))		Link to resource	Room use only	SP-2348		00004233

Special Problem (BS Applied Mathematics - - Statistics) Cavite State University.

Includes bibliographical references.

College of Arts and Science (CAS)

ESTRADA, ANDREA DIONISIO. Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production". Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics. Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, April 2002. Adviser: Mr. Antonio V. Cinto.
The study entitled "Time Series Analysis of Philippine Rice Production" was conducted at the Physical Sciences Department, College of Arts and Sciences, Cavite State University, Indang, Cavite, from January to February 2002 to: l) determine a model that could be used in forecasting the rice production of the Philippines; 2) provide a forecast of the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005; and 3) test the accuracy of the formulated model.
The yearly series data of the country's rice production was obtained from the Provincial Agricultural Office in Trece Martires City, Cavite and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture in Quezon City.
Three models were formulated in this study. To select the best model that will predict the Philippine rice production from 2002 to 2005, the following criteria were considered: R-squared; adjusted R-squared; standard error of regression; sum of squared residual; Durbin-Watson statistic; Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Shwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC).
Forecasted values from the year 2002 to 2005 were computed using the formulated model ARMA (1, 2) with the equation:
yt + 0.60yt-5 +0.73et-l -0.54et-4 +
The forecasted rice production for the year 2002 to 2005 followed an inconsistent trend. In the end of the year 2002, the rice production was approximated to be 7,981,579
metric tons; metric tons in 2003; 7,577,385 metric tons in 2004; and 7,377,784 metric tons in year 2005.
The forecast accuracy was also tested using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The MAPE results showed that there was a small standard error indicating that the forecasted values were reliable.

Submitted to the University Library 05/29/2002 SP-2348